Debasing the Baseless – Modern Monetary Theory
Populist politicians are turning to Modern Monetary Theory Fiscal stimulus has not led to significant inflation during the last decade MMT is too…
Global Real Estate – Has the tide begun to recede?
Despite the fourth quarter shakeout in stocks, real estate values keep rising Financial conditions remain key, especially in a low rate environment Isolated…
China in transition – From manufacturer to consumer
China is evolving from a current account surplus to deficit country Increased domestic consumption and dis-saving by an ageing population drives the trend…
Capital Flows – is a reckoning nigh?
Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows The BIS has identified an Expansionary Lower Bound for…
Central bank balance sheet reductions – will anyone follow the Fed?
The next wave of QE will be different, credit spreads will be controlled The Federal Reserve may continue to tighten but few other…
Sustainable government debt – an old idea refreshed
New research from the Peterson Institute suggests bond yields may fall once more Demographic forces and unfunded state liabilities point to an inevitable…
A world of debt – where are the risks?
Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008 Advanced economies have led the trend Emerging market…
Emerging Market Sensitivity to US Monetary Policy – What does the Fed think?
Emerging market currencies have suffered from US interest rate increases The Dallas Fed proposes reserve/GDP ratio as a simple indicator of stress If tightening…
How are Chinese stocks responding to tariffs with the US and a slowdown in Asian growth?
Despite US tariffs, China’s September trade balance with the US reached a record high A number of China’s Asian neighbours have seen a deceleration…
Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation?
Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation? The US stock market is close to being in a corrective phase -10% off its…