Divergent – the breakdown of stock market correlations, temp or perm?
Emerging market stocks have stabilised, helped by the strength of US equities Rising emerging market bond yields are beginning to attract investor attention…
Canary in the coal-mine – Emerging market contagion
Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk…
Italy and the repricing of European government debt
The yield spread between 10yr BTPs and Bunds widened 114bp in May Populist and anti-EU politics were the catalyst for this repricing of…
Robots, employment and the mis-measurement of productivity
UK productivity – output/hour has risen 1.5% in a decade UK unemployment, at 4.2%, is the lowest since April 1975 UK real-wages have risen…
Is the US exporting a recession?
The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates The ECB and BoJ maintain QE Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing,…
Inflation or Employment
Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009 Commodity prices have risen…
What to expect from Central Bankers
The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to…
Stocks for the Long Run but not the short
In the long run stocks outperform bonds For a decade stocks, bonds and real estate have risen in tandem The risk of a substantial…
Are we nearly there yet? Employment, interest rates and inflation
Rising interest rates and inflation are spooking financial markets Unemployment data suggests that labour markets are tight Central Banks will have to respond to…
A safe place to hide – inflation and the bond markets
US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance…