Market expectations and long-term US interest rates
After closing at 3.03% in December 2013 the yield on the 10-year US T-Note has been trending down, closing at 2.34% by August this…
Yield curve and the US economy
So far in August the differential between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill stood at…
Why doesn’t monetary pumping help economic growth?
Despite all the massive monetary pumping over the past six years and the lowering of interest rates to almost zero most commentators have expressed…
Where is the US$ heading against major currencies?
Within the framework of our econometric model the key variable that drives a currency rate of exchange is the relative money supply rate of…
Are economic sanctions behind a possible recession in Russia?
According to commentators, sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union are pushing Russia towards a recession. However, we hold that some key…
Is inflation good for economic growth?
After settling at 3.9% in July 2011 the yearly rate of growth of the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.6% by January this…
Is bad weather the key cause behind weak US economic data?
Some key US economic data shows visible weakening. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index slumped to 46 in February from 56…
Why some emerging markets are heading for a bust
In countries such as Turkey and Argentina a tighter stance implemented by central banks has set in motion an economic bust. In Turkey the…
Bubbles and central banks – is there a connection?
According to the popular way of thinking, bubbles are an important cause of economic recessions. The main question posed by experts is how one…
Fed’s tightening and economic activity
On September 17-18 US central bank policy makers are likely to decide on the reduction in their monthly purchases of bonds by between $10…