It’s the debt, stupid!
US equities are being driven by purely domestic investment flows — rejoicing over Trump’s MAGA policies is understandable. But it ignores an enormous, dangerous…
Conditions exist for an equity market crash
The relationship between the credit cycle and equity markets is well established. The credit cycle has its foundation in bank credit, which expands while…
Underestimating debt traps
The sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields anticipates a pivot in Fed policy, which appeared to be justified this week by Chairman Powell’s…
Managing a crisis
This article concludes that the current downturn in bond yields is part of a continuing market manipulation by central banks in order to restore…
Constructive and Destructive Roles of Credit
This article defines credit, a subject upon which there is a lack of public knowledge. What people call money is in fact credit, and…
Unwinding the Financial System
This article looks at the collateral side of financial transactions and some significant problems that are already emerging. At a time when there is…
There’s a Herd of Elephants in the Room
Among the many problems currencies the markets face, there is one that is undocumented: the eurodollar market. This is yet another very large elephant…
Say’s Law Says It All
As the world descends into a much-heralded recession, the surprise will be that interest rates will continue to rise as economic activity contracts. This…
Beware the great unwind
This chart strongly suggests that US Treasury bond yields, widely regarded as the risk-free yardstick against which all other credit is measured are going…
The global bank credit crisis
Globally, further falls in consumer price inflation are now unlikely and there are yet further interest rate increases to come. Bond yields are already…