2015: the year of the slump?
2014 ended with two ominous developments: the strength of the US dollar and a collapse in key commodity prices. It is tempting to view…
Spare dollars
Last week I wrote that contrary to the prevailing mood US dollar strength could reverse at any time. This week I look at another…
Red alert: financial markets facing possible derivatives crisis (again!)
There is a significant risk that the financial effects of the collapse in the oil price could spread through the financial system. Already there…
Commodities and the dollar
Each commodity market has its own story to tell: oil prices are falling because OPEC can’t agree production cuts, steel faces a glut from…
Russia’s monetary solution
The hypothesis that follows, if carried through, is certain to have a significant effect on gold and the relationship between gold and all government-issued…
That G20 meeting
G20 gatherings of world leaders on the surface are all the same: they conclude with a meaningless anodyne statement that everyone can agree with….
Bank gearing in the Eurozone
According to the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for October banks eased their credit standards in the last quarter, while their risk perceptions increased. This…
Deflation comes knocking at the door
There is little doubt that deflationary risks have increased in recent weeks, if only because the dollar has risen sharply against other currencies. Understanding…
China’s gold strategy
China first delegated the management of gold policy to the People’s Bank by regulations in 1983. This development was central to China’s emergence as…
Markets and reality disconnected
The behaviour of financial markets these days is frankly divorced from reality, with value-investing banished. Markets have become distorted by Rumsfeld-knowns such as interest…