The real determinants of currency value
There are two components to the inflation story: the cycle of bank credit, which left to itself is self-cancelling, and the longer-term erosion of…
Updating Say’s law for modern times
It was Keynes’ offhand dismissal of Say’s law, or the law of the markets, in 1936 which is leading us into an economic and…
Sterling crisis ahead!
This article points to the factors driving sterling gilt yields higher. They are likely to lead to a sterling crisis as foreign selling gathers…
The dynamics driving the dollar down
This article examines the currency imbalances between US dollars and the other currencies and concludes that should foreign holders decide to reduce their dollar…
Deflating the credit bubble
The theme of this article is debt deflation. How likely is it that the downturn in broad money supply will continue, and if so,…
The great credit unwind and Powell’s hidden pivot
We are all now aware that the global banking system is extremely fragile. Driving bank failures is contracting credit, which in turn drives interest…
Credit chaos
Following the day-to-day twists and turns of a banking crisis can make us lose sight of the bigger picture. It is tempting to think…
CBDCs — The good, the bad, the ugly
There has been much comment over the likelihood that central bank digital currencies will be introduced. I conclude they are unnecessary — a red…
Interest rates: The silent killer
This article is about why interest rates and bond yields are rising and why they will continue to rise, threatening to undermine the entire…
Inflation, recession, and declining US hegemony
In the distant future, we might look back on 2022 and 2023 as pivotal years. So far, we have seen the conflict between America…