Boom
by“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” Aldous Huxley. There’s a telling quotation in Howard Marks’ latest memo to…
Economics
The Fed Remains on Course – to Trouble
byThe Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to continue to tighten its monetary policy this year. According to a latest Reuters Poll, the Fed…
Why economists cannot forecast recessions
byThe purpose of this article is to draw the widest attention to the chronic inability of the economic establishment to forecast recessions. Next time…
How Onerous Are Basel III’s Constraints On Bank Leverage?
byIt is generally acknowledged that high bank leverage was a key factor contributing to the severity of the Global Financial Crisis. For the UK,…
Are Bank Capital Requirements Really Ten Times Higher Than Before The Crisis?
byA major theme in Bank of England speeches over the last three years has been the ‘Ten Times’ story: bank capital requirements are now…
How can the Fed possibly unwind QE?
byThere are currently two important items on the Fed’s wish list. The first is to restore interest rates to more normal levels, and the…
Has Bitcoin come of age?
byBitcoin (BTC) has tripled and then halved since late March Even at BTCUSD 2000 total issuance amounts to $33bln Historic volatility is high (80%)…
Benn Steil: How Fairly Valued is China’s Currency? Big Mac and Mini Mac Square Off Again.
byThe “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does…
THE FICTION OF THE ‘GREAT CAPITAL REBUILD’
byThe central element of the Bank of England’s narrative on the UK banking system is the ‘Great Capital Rebuild’. To paraphrase Governor Carney’s comments…
Popularity is overrated
by“Remember what has happened. In an unnecessary referendum, a small majority chose an option they could not understand, because it had not been worked…