Math Gone Mad: Regulatory Risk Modeling by the Federal Reserve
byThe U.S. financial system faces a major, growing, and much under-appreciated threat from the Federal Reserve’s risk modeling agenda—the “Fed stress tests.” These were…
Risk
A black mark for benchmarks
by“Sir, So Ed Miliband “forgot” to mention the deficit. This from a man who was a key member of the team that ran up…
Understanding Deposit Insurance (I): Deposit Insurance is a Creature of the State
byDeposit insurance is one of the most misunderstood – and also most dangerous – forms of government intervention into the financial system. Let’s…
Yield curve and the US economy
bySo far in August the differential between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill stood at…
Storm warning
by“When Nobel Prize-winner Joseph Stiglitz was asked in Germany this week if the country and its neighbours would suffer a lost decade, his response…
Stocks and the Stockdale Paradox
by“Anything can happen in stock markets and you ought to conduct your affairs so that if the most extraordinary events happen, you’re still around…
Keep calm and carry on
byAt the end of July global equity bull markets had a moment of doubt, falling three or four per cent. In the seven trading…
Lessons in investment warfare
by“Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange…
A tale of two certainties
byIt is common knowledge that Japan is in extreme financial difficulties, and that the currency is most likely to sink and sink. After all,…
Text of “The Death of French Savings, the Russian Bonds Story 1880-1996”
byThe following text is from the notes I made of a talk that I gave to the “End of The World Club” at the…